Respectively, Research Specialist, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721; University of Arkansas Tree-Ring Laboratory, Department of Geoscience, 113 Ozark Hall, Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701; and Research Specialist and Professor of Dendrochronology, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 (E-Mail Meko:dmeko@LTRR.arizona.edu).
SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1
Article first published online: 8 JUN 2007
© 2001 American Water Resources Association
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume 37, Issue 4, pages 1029–1039, August 2001
How to Cite
Meko, D. M., Therrell, M. D., Baisan, C. H. and Hughes, M. K. (2001), SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37: 1029–1039. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb05530.x
Paper No. 00106 of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Discussions are open until April 1, 2002.
- Issue published online: 8 JUN 2007
- Article first published online: 8 JUN 2007
- Sacramento River
ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long-term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time-varying subsets of tree-ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n-year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single-year gaged flow. The tree-ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50-year periods characterize some parts of the long-term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree-ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.