Survey-Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small-Scale Rivers

Authors

  • Yong Jung,

    1. Respectively, Research Assistant Professor and Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Korea
    Search for more papers by this author
  • Minha Choi

    1. Respectively, Research Assistant Professor and Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 133-791, Korea
    Search for more papers by this author

  • This article was published online on November 17, 2011. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected December 2, 2011.

  • Paper No. JAWRA-11-0006-P of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA). Discussions are open until six months from print publication.

(E-Mail/Choi: mchoi@hanyang.ac.kr)

Abstract

Jung, Yong and Minha Choi, 2012. Survey-Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small-Scale Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 256-265. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00608.x

Abstract:  The vulnerability indicators can be used to develop water resource policy in the context of climate change. The Delphi method, an interactive prediction technique, is an efficient way to apply weighting functionality to vulnerability indicators consisting of three parts: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity on climate change. The Delphi method is an anonymous iterative survey of expert opinion, which is then shared with other participants. A total of three different rounds were carried out. The first round was a problem selection set, and the second and third were the standard Delphi survey. Fifty-eight experts (66% academic and 34% practitioner) were invited. The rates of reply were 59, 50, and 38% for the first, second, and third Delphi processes, respectively. The degree of consensus of the Delphi survey was validated via variance changes and Kendall’s W test. Exposure and Adaptive Capacity presented increased levels of agreement among respondents in their given priorities. Particularly strong convergence (0.20 to 0.71 in Kendall’s W) of the experts’ opinions for Adaptive Capacity was observed. The results of this study indicate that finalized factors with ultimate weights through the Delphi method can be a strong support for governmental policy making with respect to climate change.

Ancillary