Stone, Wesley W. and Robert J. Gilliom, 2012. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) Models for Predicting Atrazine Concentrations in Corn Belt Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 970-986. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00661.x
Abstract: Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, are improved for application to the United States (U.S.) Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62% of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites. Model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90% of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. Although atrazine-use intensity is the most important explanatory variable in the National WARP models, it is not a significant variable in the WARP-CB models. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with atrazine-use intensities of 17 kg/km2 of watershed area or greater.