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Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia – what is the size of the matter?

  1. Dianna J. Magliano1,
  2. Anna Peeters2,
  3. Theo Vos3,
  4. Richard Sicree4,
  5. Jonathan Shaw4,
  6. Colin Sindall5,
  7. Michelle Haby6,
  8. Stephen J. Begg7,
  9. Paul Z. Zimmet8

Article first published online: 8 DEC 2009

DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x

Issue

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

Volume 33, Issue 6, pages 540–543, December 2009

Additional Information

How to Cite

Magliano, D. J., Peeters, A., Vos, T., Sicree, R., Shaw, J., Sindall, C., Haby, M., Begg, S. J. and Zimmet, P. Z. (2009), Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia – what is the size of the matter?. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 33: 540–543. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x

Author Information

  1. 1

    Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Victoria

  2. 2

    Monash University, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Victoria

  3. 3

    Centre for Burden of Disease and Cost-Effectiveness, School of Population Health, University of Queensland

  4. 4

    Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Victoria

  5. 5

    Population Health Strategy Unit, Population Health Division, Department of Health and Ageing, Australian Capital Territory

  6. 6

    Chronic Disease Prevention, Public Health Branch, Department of Human Services, Victoria

  7. 7

    School of Population Health, University of Queensland

  8. 8

    Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Victoria

*Correspondence to: Dianna J. Magliano, Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, 250 Kooyong Road, Caulfield, Victoria, 3162. Fax: (03) 9258 5090; e-mail: dianna.magliano@bakeridi.edu.au

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 8 DEC 2009
  2. Article first published online: 8 DEC 2009
  3. Submitted: February 2009 Revision requested: April 2009 Accepted: June 2009

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Keywords:

  • diabetes;
  • prevalence;
  • forecasting;
  • projections;
  • incidence

Abstract

Objective: To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future.

Approach: Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made.

Conclusion: We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a ‘base case’ using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses.

Implications: Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.

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