Editor David Lindenmayer
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LETTER
Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the future of humid tropical forests
Article first published online: 22 JUN 2010
DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00133.x
©2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Additional Information
How to Cite
Asner, G. P., Loarie, S. R. and Heyder, U. (2010), Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the future of humid tropical forests. Conservation Letters, 3: 395–403. doi: 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00133.x
Publication History
- Issue published online: 3 DEC 2010
- Article first published online: 22 JUN 2010
- Accepted manuscript online: 22 JUN 2010 12:00AM EST
- Received 17 February 2010Accepted4 May 2010
Keywords:
- Deforestation;
- degradation;
- biodiversity;
- climate change;
- Amazon;
- Congo;
- Indonesia
Abstract
New deforestation and selective logging data and climate change projections suggest that biodiversity refugia in humid tropical forests may change more extensively than previously reported. However, the relative impacts from climate change and land use vary by region. In the Amazon, a combination of climate change and land use renders up to 81% of the region susceptible to rapid vegetation change. In the Congo, logging and climate change could negatively affect the biodiversity in 35–74% of the basin. Climate-driven changes may play a smaller role in Asia-Oceania compared to that of Latin America or Africa, but land use renders 60–77% of Asia-Oceania susceptible to major biodiversity changes. By 2100, only 18–45% of the biome will remain intact. The results provide new input on the geography of projected climate change relative to ongoing land-use change to better determine where biological conservation might be most effective in this century.