A mathematical model for evaluating tuberculosis screening strategies


Xiaowei Jia, National Institute of Occupational Health and Poison Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Email: snailjjj@163.com


In order to better predict epidemic of tuberculosis (TB) and evaluate the effect of TB control strategies, we added the effect of transmission from permanent residents to migrants to our previous TB model. We simulated the behavior of TB transmission by the extended model. The numerical simulation indicated that the basic reproductive numbers must be less than one in both permanent residents and migrants in order to eliminate the disease from total population. We also evaluated the Canada's TB screening strategy and observe that TB is sensitive to the strategy. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis. The effective TB control measures should incorporate migrant as well the permanent residents.