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Keywords:

  • sport;
  • predictions;
  • estimation;
  • tournament design
  • C61;
  • L83

This paper considers a bonus point system for the Australian Football League (AFL). We utilise league points as a measure of team strength in a prediction model and choose the allocation of points to maximise prediction accuracy. For AFL data extending over seasons 1997–2008, we determine a bonus point system that is better at revealing strong teams than the current allocation of league points. For each match, our preferred league-scoring system awards six points. If Team A wins by more than twenty-six points, they get all six points. If Team A wins by less than twenty-seven points, Team A gets four points and Team B gets two points. If the teams draw, they each get three points.