• climate change;
  • grains sector;
  • productivity;
  • integrated assessment
  • C68;
  • D58;
  • F18;
  • Q17;
  • Q54

We examine the effects of a one degree Celsius warming globally by 2030 on the distribution of grains sector productivity responses in several major economies. An integrated assessment modelling framework, the Global Integrated Assessment Model is used in our analysis. Our results highlight that at the tails of the distribution of climate change impacts simulated in this study, there is some variation in self-sufficiency and export availability of grains products reported for specific economies. These variations could widen further if distortionary trade policies are added to the current analysis.