Effects of Variation in the Grains Sector Response to Climate Change: An Integrated Assessment


  • The authors thank an anonymous referee for valuable comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript. Helpful comments by Pep Canadell, Kevin Hanslow and Kym Anderson in preparing this article are gratefully acknowledged. Robert Scealy was a visiting Scientist at CSIRO when this research was undertaken, and he is currently with Deloitte Access Economics in Canberra.

Don Gunasekera, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, GPO Box 3023, Canberra ACT 2602, Australia. Email: don.gunasekera@csiro.au


We examine the effects of a one degree Celsius warming globally by 2030 on the distribution of grains sector productivity responses in several major economies. An integrated assessment modelling framework, the Global Integrated Assessment Model is used in our analysis. Our results highlight that at the tails of the distribution of climate change impacts simulated in this study, there is some variation in self-sufficiency and export availability of grains products reported for specific economies. These variations could widen further if distortionary trade policies are added to the current analysis.