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Keywords:

  • carcinogenesis;
  • hepatitis C virus;
  • non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Aim:  Malignancies that include hepatocellular carcinoma often occurred in patients with chronic liver disease. The aim of this retrospective match control study was to assess the cumulative development incidence and predictive factors for total malignancies in elderly Japanese patients with non-alcoholic hepatic diseases (NAFLD) or hepatitis C virus (HCV).

Methods:  A total of 1600 NAFLD patients with age of ≥60 years were enrolled, and 1600 HCV patients with age of ≥60 years were selected as control by matching 1:1 with NAFLD group for age, sex, and follow-up period. The primary goal is the first development of malignancies. Evaluation was performed by the use of the Wilcoxon rank sum test, the Kaplan–Meier method, and Cox proportional hazard model. The mean observation period is 8.2 years in both NAFLD and HCV group, respectively.

Results:  The number of patients with the development of malignancies was 167 in the NAFLD group and 395 in the HCV group. The 10th development rate of malignancies was 13.9% in the NAFLD group and 28.2% in the HCV group (risk ratio 2.27; P < 0.001). The incident rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in all the malignancies were 6.0% (10/167) in the NAFLD group and 67.6% (267/395) in the HCV group (P < 0.001). The malignancies in the NAFLD group were observed in the following order: gastric cancer 34 cases (20.4%) > colon cancer 31 cases (18.6%) > prostate cancer 21 cases (12.6%).

Conclusions:  The incident rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in all the malignancies were approximately 6% in the NAFLD group and two-thirds in the HCV group.