MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DROUGHT RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE
Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2012
Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Natural Resource Modeling
Volume 26, Issue 2, pages 237–258, May 2013
How to Cite
RANJAN, R. (2013), MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DROUGHT RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE. Natural Resource Modeling, 26: 237–258. doi: 10.1111/j.1939-7445.2012.00136.x
- Issue online: 22 APR 2013
- Version of Record online: 31 JUL 2012
- Received by the editors on 20th October 2011. Accepted 18th June 2012.
- Agricultural sustainability;
- drought resilience;
- livelihood resilience;
- climate change;
- global warming;
Abstract. Ensuring drought resilience for farmers is an important policy concern. Yet, a quantitative treatment of the concept of drought resilience has been lacking in the literature. This paper designs a mathematical model of drought resilience to assess farmers’ survival strategies when faced with the prospect of repeated droughts. A key distinction is being made here between consecutive droughts and one-off droughts, as it is the former, which is of most concern to farmers as well as policy makers. The mathematical model is generalized to incorporate the possibility of more than one set of a certain number of consecutive droughts occurring in the future. Findings indicate varying implications for groundwater sustainability when resilience outcomes are directly linked to the length of a farmer's drought planning horizon as well as to the planned minimum consumption during drought years.