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Fig. S1. A graphical check of goodness-of-fit for the scaled logistic model for the heron data.

Fig. S2. (a) An illustration of the estimates of λt from fitting the logistic and delayed-logistic models to the combined data. (b) A graphical check of the goodness-of-fit for the scaled-logistic model for the joint data, where “obs” denotes observed values and “exp” denotes expected values.

Fig. S3. Maximum-likelihood estimates of Λ from the K = 16 timesegmentation model fitted to the combined data sets.

Fig. S4. A simulation study to compare the performance of the scaledlogistic model when ô is varied.

Table S1. Recovery data on British grey herons, ringed between 1987 and 1997. Data provided by the British Trust for Ornithology.

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