Effects of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Risk-neutral Distribution: Evidence from KOSPI200 Intraday Options Data

Authors


  • Acknowledgments: We are grateful to Kee Chung (the editor) and two anonymous referees for many constructive comments and suggestions. We also thank Hyuntak Lee, Doojin Ryu, and other seminar participants at the Conference of Asia-Pacific Association of Derivatives (2010) and the Conference on Asia-Pacific Financial Markets (2010) for helpful discussions. All remaining errors are ours. This work was supported by Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Research Fund of 2011.

Corresponding author: Sol Kim, College of Business Administration, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 270 Imun-dong, Dongdaemun-Gu, Seoul, Korea. Tel: 82-2-2173-3124, Fax: 82-2-959-4645, email: solkim@hufs.ac.kr.

Abstract

This study examines the effects of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the implied risk-neutral distribution (RND) from option prices. Using the KOSPI200 index options market as the sample market, this study investigates whether the implied RND responds to scheduled macroeconomic news announcements from South Korea and the US. We select six important macroeconomic news announcements each for South Korea and the US and classify them as good news and bad news according to the KOSPI200 index return on the day of the announcement. We use two parametric methods to recover the RND and conduct regression analyses at daily, hourly, and 5-min intervals. The analysis provided several noteworthy results. First, the RND responds to most of the macroeconomic news announcements, but its response disappears within a day in many cases. Second, the longevity of the response depends on the type of news. Third, the implied volatility tends to increase, and the RND tends to become less leptokurtic after news announcements. Fourth, the RND tends to become less (more) negatively skewed after a good (bad) news announcement. Finally, there is no clear evidence of the information contents regarding the effect of news announcements in the RND.

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