The Effect of Abnormal Turnover on Asymmetric Autoregressive Behavior of Index Returns: Evidence from the Chinese A-share Stock Markets

Authors


  • Acknowledgements: The authors are grateful to three referees and one of the Associate Editors for their feedback and insightful suggestions. Special thanks also go to Dr. Myung-Jig Kim, the former Editor, and the Editor, Dr. Chang-Soo Kim.

Corresponding author: Jung-Lieh Hsiao, Graduate Institute of International Business, National Taipei University, No. 151, University Rd, SanShia District, New Taipei 23741, Taiwan, Tel: + 886-2-26748189 ext 66877, Fax: +886-2-26736271, email: jhsiao@mail.ntpu.edu.tw.

Abstract

This study tests the effect of turnover shocks on the asymmetric autoregressive behavior of index returns. The methodological approach adopted in this study is based on the relationship between market return and trading volume. This study first uses a vector autoregression (VAR) to model two market trading volume series by controlling for the variation associated with the sign and magnitude of both week t and week t − 1 or week + 1 market returns. The generated market-adjusted relative turnover (MRTO) series are then plugged into the bivariate asymmetric AR GARCH-t model (asAR-GARCH-t) using weekly data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share stock markets. The results show that turnover shocks have a material effect on asymmetric autoregressive behavior and thus on asymmetric persistence of past returns.

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