Part of the research reported in this document has been sponsored by the U.S. Weather Bureau under contract No. Cwb-9316.
An Investigation of Systematic Errors in the Barotropic Forecasts1
Article first published online: 18 MAR 2010
1958 Blackwell Munksgaard
Volume 10, Issue 4, pages 451–465, November 1958
How to Cite
Martin, D. E. (1958), An Investigation of Systematic Errors in the Barotropic Forecasts. Tellus, 10: 451–465. doi: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1958.tb02033.x
- Issue published online: 18 MAR 2010
- Article first published online: 18 MAR 2010
- Received April 1, 1958, revised July 30, 1958
Forecast-errors in the 24- and 48-hour barotropic 500-mb prognostic charts prepared by JNWPU for the winter of 1957 were investigated. Certain large-scale forecast-errors were found to persist from day-to-day in fairly localized geographical areas. In general, the numerical prognoses exhibited a tendency to forecast excessively high values off the southeastern coasts and excessively low values off the northwestern coasts of the continents. Little forecast-error was observed in the continental interiors.
A Fourier analysis revealed that the forecast-errors were largely due to incorrect phase forecasts for wave numbers 1 through 4.
The forecast-errors associated with wave number 1 usually “positioned” the large-scale systematic forecast-errors near Japan and Scandinavia and contributed materially to their intensities.
Relationships between forecast-error fields and topography, geography, synoptic situation, and “non-adiabatic” heating are discussed.
Hemispheric fields of “non-adiabatic” heating, computed using a two-level graphical model, are shown.
Charts illustrating the dependence of “non-adiabatic” heating on the general circulation are also shown.