On the prediction of mean monthly ocean temperatures



The conservation of thermal energy equation is used as a basis for predicting month-to-month changes in surface ocean temperature. The equation includes horizontal advection of heat by mean ocean currents and by turbulent eddies, as well as heating by radiation, evaporation and turbulent vertical transport of sensible heat. The numerical experiments show that the predictions have skill. A comparative study is undertaken of the influence of the different factors that enter in the prediction, and a method is developed to test different options of the parameters.