Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay
Article first published online: 26 SEP 2014
This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA
Journal of Applied Microbiology
Volume 117, Issue 5, pages 1312–1327, November 2014
How to Cite
Jacobs, J.M., Rhodes, M., Brown, C.W., Hood, R.R., Leight, A., Long, W. and Wood, R. (2014), Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 117: 1312–1327. doi: 10.1111/jam.12624
- Issue published online: 14 OCT 2014
- Article first published online: 26 SEP 2014
- Accepted manuscript online: 19 AUG 2014 10:44AM EST
- Manuscript Accepted: 14 AUG 2014
- Manuscript Revised: 8 AUG 2014
- Manuscript Received: 22 MAY 2014
- Chesapeake Bay;
To construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters of Chesapeake Bay for implementation in ecological forecasting systems.
Methods and Results
We evaluated and applied previously published qPCR assays to water samples (n = 1636) collected from Chesapeake Bay from 2007–2010 in conjunction with State water quality monitoring programmes. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts.
Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future.
Significance and Impact of the Study
This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.