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Understanding how organisms adjust breeding dates to exploit resources that affect fitness can provide insights into impacts of climate change on avian demography. For instance, mismatches have been reported in long-distance migrant bird species when environmental cues experienced during spring migration are decoupled from conditions on breeding grounds. Short-distance migrant bird species that store reproductive nutrients prior to breeding may avoid or buffer adverse phenological effects. Furthermore, reduced short-term reproductive success could be offset by higher future recruitment of surviving offspring. We evaluated whether recruitment of locally-hatched female offspring was related to hatching date alone or strength of mismatched breeding date for 405 individually-marked adult female common goldeneyes Bucephala clangula (a short-distance migrant) and their ducklings from a site in central Finland where ice-out date has advanced by ∼ 2 weeks over 24 yr. Path analyses revealed that older, early-nesting females with good body condition and larger broods recruited the most female offspring. Offspring recruitment decreased strongly among females that bred late relative to other females in the population each year; the extent of mismatched breeding date, i.e. hatching date scaled to annual ice-out date, was less influential. Overall, most females advanced breeding dates when ice-out occurred earlier in spring, but some females exhibited greater flexibility in response to ice-out conditions than did others. In general, directional selection favoured early breeding over a wide range of ice-out dates. Our results seem most consistent with a hypothesis that some short-distance migrant species like goldeneyes have the capacity to track and respond appropriately to changing environmental conditions prior to onset of breeding.