Paper No. JAWRA-11-0107-P of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA).
A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin†
Article first published online: 15 JUL 2013
© 2013 American Water Resources Association
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume 49, Issue 6, pages 1327–1350, December 2013
How to Cite
2013. A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 49(6):1327-1350. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12092and ,
Discussions are open until six months from print publication.
- Issue published online: 2 DEC 2013
- Article first published online: 15 JUL 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: 21 MAR 2013
- Manuscript Received: 27 AUG 2011
- National Science Foundation. Grant Number: EPS-0814387
- water resources;
- surface water-groundwater;
- conjunctive management;
- Snake River basin
The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics-Snake River Planning Model (SD-SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950-1995) resulted in an r2 value of 0.74 and a validation (1996-2005) r2 value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r2 value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991-2005) end-of-month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human-natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.