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jen12129-sup-0001-FigS1a.jpgimage/jpg723KFig. S1. (a–c) Examples of meteorological datasets and Ceutorhynchus napi immigration dates plotted against the day of the year (DOY) for Goettingen in years when model M3 predicted the immigration date (a) correctly, (b) later than observed and (c) earlier than observed. Line graphs represent daily maximum air temperature (°C), the upper bar charts represent daily sunshine duration (h) and the lower bar charts represent daily totals of precipitation (mm). Observed immigration dates and dates when the model predicted immigration are indicated by solid vertical lines and broken vertical lines, respectively.
jen12129-sup-0002-FigS1b.jpgimage/jpg775K 
jen12129-sup-0003-FigS1c.jpgimage/jpg694K 
jen12129-sup-0004-FigS2a.jpgimage/jpg860KFig. S2. (a–c) Examples of meteorological datasets and Ceutorhynchus napi immigration dates plotted against the day of the year (DOY) for sites in Luxembourg where model M4 predicted the immigration date (a) correctly, (b) later than observed and (c) earlier than observed. Line graphs represent daily maximum air temperature (°C, solid line), and mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth (°C; broken line). The upper bar charts represent daily sunshine duration (h), and the lower bar charts represent daily totals of precipitation (mm). Observed immigration dates and dates when the model predicted immigration are indicated by solid vertical lines and broken vertical lines, respectively.
jen12129-sup-0005-FigS2b.jpgimage/jpg871K 
jen12129-sup-0006-FigS2c.jpgimage/jpg908K 
jen12129-sup-0007-TabS1.docWord document37KTable S1. Long-term monthly means of mean, maximum and minimum air temperature as well as long-term monthly totals of precipitation for Goettingen (Germany) and Luxembourg-Findel for the period 1971–2000. Last column contains long-term annual values.

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