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Keywords:

  • C32;
  • E20;
  • E21;
  • house prices;
  • retail sales;
  • collateral;
  • factor-augmented VAR;
  • housing wealth

We estimate the dynamic effects of U.S. housing market shocks on state-level spending and home prices from a dynamic common factor model, and identify housing demand and supply shocks using a sign-restrictions approach. While state-level spending and house prices gradually respond positively and persistently to aggregate housing demand shocks, there is significant variation across states in the magnitude of these responses. Cross-state regressions of the estimated responses on an index of mortgage market development suggest that spending in states with greater opportunities for home equity borrowing is more sensitive to housing demand shocks than in states with fewer opportunities, which is consistent with the prominence of a “collateral” channel over a “wealth” channel in explaining the link between housing and the overall economy.