Sue Wing gratefully acknowledges support from U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-06ER64204 and DE-SC005171.
THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY†
Article first published online: 13 MAY 2013
© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Journal of Regional Science
Volume 53, Issue 4, pages 672–689, October 2013
How to Cite
Baldwin, J. G. and Wing, I. S. (2013), THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY. Journal of Regional Science, 53: 672–689. doi: 10.1111/jors.12028
- Issue published online: 18 SEP 2013
- Article first published online: 13 MAY 2013
- Manuscript Accepted: FEB 2013
- Manuscript Revised: OCT 2012
- Manuscript Received: DEC 2011
- U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. Grant Numbers: DE-FG02-06ER64204, DE-SC005171
We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy-related CO2 into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission- and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO2—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.