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Table S1 Ranges of values for the ABC priors under population expansion and decline, which encompass the corresponding ranges of the pseudo-observed datasets (Table 1).

Table S2 Results of the model choice procedure for population expansion and decline.

Table S3 Root mean square errors for the estimates of the expansion model parameters θ , R and inline image assuming a model without or with germ banks and the correct β -value.

Table S4 Root mean square errors for the estimates of the decline model parameters θ , d and inline image assuming a model without or with germ banks and the correct β -value.

Fig. S1 Relative errors for the population mutation rate, θ , of a past population expansion. The x-axis indicates the β -values under which the observed data were generated, that is, for a model with germ bank.

Fig. S2 Relative errors for the decline ratio, d, of a past population decline. The x-axis indicates the β -value under which the observed data were generated, that is, for a model with germ bank.

Fig. S3 Relative errors for the time of decline, inline image, of a past population decline.

Fig. S4 Relative errors for the population mutation rate, θ , of a past population decline.

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