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Fig. S1 Phylogenetic Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regressions between survival rates and the second principal axis (PC2) of variation of the temperature BioClim variables.

Table S1 Mean and 95% confidence set of the BioClim temperature variables for species in the common winter garden

Table S2 Kendall's tau reported for minimum (95% confidence interval (CI)), maximum (95% CI) and mean values of the BioClim temperature variables

Table S3 Results of the phylogenetic principal component analysis (PCA) of temperature-associated BioClim variables

Table S4 Regressions of survival rate against realized temperature niche

Table S5 Phylogenetic principal component analysis (PCA) for the 224 species of Danthonioideae for which both climate and sequence data are available

Table S6 Significant shifts (as measured by a difference in corrected Akaike Information Criterion of at least five, ΔAICc ≥ 5) in the rate of change in cold tolerance

Table S7 Fit of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models to cold tolerance data in Danthonioideae