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Fig. S1 Smooth terms from Generalized Additive Model, for covariates in the final version of Model 1.

Fig. S2 Smooth terms from Generalized Additive Model, for covariates in the final version of Model 2.

Fig. S3 Diagnostics for Model 1.

Fig. S4 Diagnostics for Model 2.

Fig. S5 Correlogram of model residuals.

Fig. S6 Observed pest numbers per country.

Fig. S7 Expected pest numbers per country.

Table S1 Correlations among covariates

Table S2 Coefficients and ANOVA for Model 1 with potential outliers and influential data removed

Table S3 Coefficients and ANOVA for Model 2 with potential outliers and influential data removed