Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol—Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate-Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV (pages 234–246)
Arjan van Dijk, Harry Slaper, Peter N. den Outer, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Braesicke, John A. Pyle, Hella Garny, Andrea Stenke, Martin Dameris, Andreas Kazantzidis, Kleareti Tourpali and Alkiviadis F. Bais
Article first published online: 26 SEP 2012 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x
We used output from two chemistry-climate models to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly. The figure shows the associated geographic distribution. In the “World Avoided,” excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. A certain skin cancer risk had already been inevitably committed once the problem of ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century.