Polls and Elections Party Identification in the 2012 Presidential Election

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Abstract

In 2000, 2004, and 2008 the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) utilized the rolling cross-section National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) to analyze changes in self-identified party affiliation across the course of the campaigns. Using APPC's Institutions of Democracy 2012 Political Knowledge 6-wave telephone survey, conducted during the final two months of the campaign and immediately following the election, we compared shifts in party affiliation to comparable periods in those prior three elections. The analysis of the relatively shortened periods, examined as cross-sections, show a more fixed affiliation. Nonetheless, there is variability from election to election especially among self-identified Independents.

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