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A Methodology for Risk Analysis Based on Hybrid Bayesian Networks: Application to the Regasification System of Liquefied Natural Gas Onboard a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit

Authors

  • Marcelo Ramos Martins,

    Corresponding author
    1. Risk Assessment Laboratory – LabRisk, Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
    • Address correspondence to Marcelo Ramos Martins, Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department, University of São Paulo, Av. Professor Mello Moraes, 2231, 05508-030, São Paulo, Brazil; mrmartin@usp.br.

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  • Adriana Miralles Schleder,

    1. Risk Assessment Laboratory – LabRisk, Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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  • Enrique López Droguett

    1. Production Engineering Department, Federal University of Pernambuco, 123 - Cidade Universitária, PE, Brazil
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Abstract

This article presents an iterative six-step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.

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