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A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates


  • We gratefully acknowledge the very helpful comments from Paul Evans, Lars Hansen, Pok-sang Lam, Nelson Mark, Masaya Sakuragawa, and two anonymous referees, as well as seminar participants at Ohio State University and the University of Rochester. Ogaki's research is supported by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 22330062.

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This paper defines the concepts of indirect and direct risk premium effects and analyzes their properties in an exchange rate model. In the model, these effects are endogenously determined in a rational expectations equilibrium. For the effect of an interest rate shock, they have the opposite signs and the indirect risk premium effect can dominate the direct risk premium effect under reasonable parameters. This means that domestic short-term bonds and foreign bonds are complements in the model even though domestic long-term bonds and foreign bonds are substitutes. This model, focusing on the indirect risk premium effect and on the term structure of interest rates, can be combined with a small sample bias approach to explain stylized facts about the forward premium anomaly, which is found for short-term interest rates, but not for long-term interest rates.