Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes

Authors


  • This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant Numbers: 71273257). The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of De Nederlandsche Bank.

Abstract

This paper investigates which factors determine whether sudden stops in international capital flows are followed by a currency crash using data for 85 economies in the period 1980–2012. An event study approach is used for an 11-year window around the crises for nine potential explanatory variables. In addition, the paper estimates discrete-choice panel models. The results suggest that low trade openness, shallow financial markets, and current account imbalances increase the likelihood that a sudden stop will be followed by a currency crash. Moreover, it is established that the impact of these factors differs across different exchange rate regimes.

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