Stochastic differential equation modeling the prevalence of rare chronic diseases with an application to systemic lupus erythematosus



In this article we describe a system of stochastic differential equations to model the age-specific prevalence of rare chronic diseases from incidence and mortality rates. As an application, the age profile of the prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus in England and Wales in1995 is calculated. The results are in good agreement with the observed epidemiological measures.