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Tellus A

© Blackwell Munksgaard

Cover image for Vol. 57 Issue 3

May 2005

Volume 57, Issue 3

Pages 217–512

  1. Preface

    1. Top of page
    2. Preface
    3. Multi-Model Forecasting
    4. Sensitivity Analyses
    5. Downscaling
    6. User Applications
    1. You have free access to this content
      PREFACE (pages 217–218)

      Tim Palmer

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00129.x

  2. Multi-Model Forecasting

    1. Top of page
    2. Preface
    3. Multi-Model Forecasting
    4. Sensitivity Analyses
    5. Downscaling
    6. User Applications
    1. You have free access to this content
      The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept (pages 219–233)

      RENATE HAGEDORN, FRANCISCO J. DOBLAS-REYES and T. N. PALMER

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x

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      The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – II. Calibration and combination (pages 234–252)

      FRANCISCO J. DOBLAS-REYES, RENATE HAGEDORN and T. N. PALMER

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00104.x

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      Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions (pages 253–264)

      D. B. STEPHENSON, C. A. S. COELHO, F. J. DOBLAS-REYES and M. BALMASEDA

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00110.x

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      A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts (pages 265–279)

      ANTJE WEISHEIMER, LEONARD A. SMITH and KEVIN JUDD

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x

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      A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts (pages 280–289)

      W. T. YUN, L. STEFANOVA, A. K. MITRA, T. S. V. VIJAYA KUMAR, W. DEWAR and T. N. KRISHNAMURTI

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00131.x

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      Winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and European region in ERA40 reanalysis and DEMETER seasonal hindcasts (pages 290–307)

      C. FIL and L. DUBUS

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00127.x

  3. Sensitivity Analyses

    1. Top of page
    2. Preface
    3. Multi-Model Forecasting
    4. Sensitivity Analyses
    5. Downscaling
    6. User Applications
    1. You have free access to this content
      Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNRM contribution to DEMETER: coupled versus uncoupled model (pages 308–319)

      JEAN-FRANÇOIS GUÉRÉMY, MICHEL DÉQUÉ, ALAIN BRAUN and JEAN-PHILIPPE PIEDELIÈVRE

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00101.x

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      A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model (pages 320–339)

      R. J. GRAHAM, M. GORDON, P. J. MCLEAN, S. INESON, M. R. HUDDLESTON, M. K. DAVEY, A. BROOKSHAW and R. T. H. BARNES

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00116.x

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      A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature (pages 340–356)

      NOEL KEENLYSIDE, MOJIB LATIF, MICHAEL BOTZET, JOHANN JUNGCLAUS and UWE SCHULZWEIDA

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00107.x

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      Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts (pages 357–374)

      SILVIO GUALDI, ANDREA ALESSANDRI and ANTONIO NAVARRA

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00108.x

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      Ensembles of global ocean analyses for seasonal climate prediction: impact of temperature assimilation (pages 375–386)

      PHILIPPE ROGEL, ANTHONY T. WEAVER, NICOLAS DAGET, SOPHIE RICCI and ERIC MACHU

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00118.x

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      Seasonal forecast of tropical climate with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models: on the respective role of the atmosphere and the ocean components in the drift of the surface temperature error (pages 387–397)

      A. LAZAR, A. VINTZILEOS, F. J. DOBLAS-REYES, P. ROGEL and P. DELECLUSE

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00135.x

  4. Downscaling

    1. Top of page
    2. Preface
    3. Multi-Model Forecasting
    4. Sensitivity Analyses
    5. Downscaling
    6. User Applications
    1. You have free access to this content
      A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions (pages 398–408)

      HENRIK FEDDERSEN and UFFE ANDERSEN

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00102.x

    2. You have free access to this content
      Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts (pages 409–423)

      E. DÍEZ, C. PRIMO, J. A. GARCÍA-MOYA, J. M. GUTIÉRREZ and B. ORFILA

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00130.x

    3. You have free access to this content
      Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy (pages 424–434)

      V. PAVAN, S. MARCHESI, A. MORGILLO, C. CACCIAMANI and F. J. DOBLAS-REYES

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00111.x

    4. You have free access to this content
      Analysis and downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps (pages 435–447)

      J. M. GUTIÉRREZ, R. CANO, A. S. COFIÑO and C. SORDO

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00128.x

    5. You have free access to this content
      Operational predictability of monthly average maximum temperature over the Iberian Peninsula using DEMETER simulations and downscaling (pages 448–463)

      M. DOLORES FRÍAS, JESÚS FERNÁNDEZ, JON SÁENZ and CONCEPCIÓN RODRÍGUEZ-PUEBLA

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00105.x

  5. User Applications

    1. Top of page
    2. Preface
    3. Multi-Model Forecasting
    4. Sensitivity Analyses
    5. Downscaling
    6. User Applications
    1. You have free access to this content
      A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model (pages 464–475)

      ANDREW P. MORSE, FRANCISCO J. DOBLAS-REYES, MOSHE B. HOSHEN, RENATE HAGEDORN and TIM N. PALMER

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00124.x

    2. You have free access to this content
      Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe (pages 476–487)

      PIERRE CANTELAUBE and JEAN-MICHEL TERRES

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00125.x

    3. You have free access to this content
      Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance (pages 488–497)

      V. MARLETTO, F. ZINONI, L. CRISCUOLO, G. FONTANA, S. MARCHESI, A. MORGILLO, M. Van SOETENDAEL, E. CEOTTO and U. ANDERSEN

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00109.x

    4. You have free access to this content
      Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles (pages 498–512)

      A. J. CHALLINOR, J. M. SLINGO, T. R. WHEELER and F. J. DOBLAS–REYES

      Article first published online: 22 APR 2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00126.x

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