We acknowledge the generous financial support from the World Bank research support budget and the Knowledge for Change Programme (KCP), a trust funded partnership in support of research and data collection on poverty reduction and sustainable development housed in the office of the Chief Economist of the World Bank (www.worldbank.org/kcp). We thank three anonymous referees as well as Zhihong Yu (the associate editor) for comments that greatly improved the paper. We thank Turkstat President Birol Aydemir, and staff Doğan Böncü, Bülent Tungul, Şahin Çelik, Akın Bodur, Nusret Kılıç, Nilgün Arıkan and Sabit Cengiz Ceylan for allowing us access to the microdata and conduct the empirical analysis in their premises. The findings expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank.
Version of Record online: 14 MAY 2014
© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
The World Economy
Volume 38, Issue 5, pages 825–855, May 2015
How to Cite
Cebeci, T. and Fernandes, A. M. (2015), Microdynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s. World Economy, 38: 825–855. doi: 10.1111/twec.12183
- Issue online: 11 MAY 2015
- Version of Record online: 14 MAY 2014
- World Bank
- Knowledge for Change Program
This paper examines the microdynamics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated exporter-level customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002–11, we characterise firm-level dynamics in the export sector and we decompose export growth at the aggregate, sectoral and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover and product turnover. We show that year-to-year aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations and products accounts for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth over longer periods. The patterns of microdynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net exporter entry plays a more critical role for export growth over longer periods.