SU-F-T-103: Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation After Conformal Radiotherapy in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the Lyman NTCP Model

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Abstract

Purpose:

The aim of this research was to investigate the feasibility of Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model in analyzing hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation in patients receiving conformal radiotherapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods:

Between June 2009 and June 2012, 108 HBV-related HCC patients (90 were specifically selected and 18 patients were excluded) treated with conformal RT at three centers were enrolled in this retrospective study. They were all diagnosed as HCC by pathology or cytology. All 90 patients were followed up to September 2013 with a median follow-up time of 25.2 months. The parameters (TD50 (1), n, and m) of the modified LKB NTCP model were derived using maximum likelihood estimation. Bootstrap and leave-one-out were employed to test the generalizability of the results for use in a general population.

Results:

The incidences of complications in the study population were as follows: radiation-induced liver diseases (RILD) were 17.6%, HBV reactivation was 24.8%, and HBV reactivation-induced hepatitis was 22.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the NTCP (p<0.001), and V20 were associated with HBV reactivation. TD50 (1), m and n were 42.9Gy (95% CI) (38.2–46.8), 0.14 (0.12–0.15) and 0.30 (0.2–0.33), respectively, for HBV reactivation. Bootstrap and leave-one-out results showed that the HBV parameter fits were extremely robust.

Conclusion:

A modified LKB NTCP model has been established to predict HBV reactivation for patients with HCC receiving conformal RT. The finding derives parameters set to predict potential endpoints of HBV reactivation.

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