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Keywords:

  • Energetics;
  • Intensity prediction;
  • Tropical cyclones

Abstract

A simple model to predict hurricane intensity based on energetics is described and tested. It is assumed that future hurricane intensity is solely determined by the large-scale environmental conditions and the present state of the hurricane, implying that subscale processes, if important, are strongly conditioned by the environment. It is also assumed that the hurricane track and the large-scale environmental conditions that are used as inputs to the intensity model can be reasonably predicted by comprehensive numerical models. A series of runs starting from different times are performed. The results by the model are fairly consistent with observations. The intensity sensitivity to various factors and parameters used in the model is also discussed. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society