Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

Authors

  • Anna B. Neuheimer,

    Corresponding author
    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), Kavalergården 6, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
    • Present address: Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 USA. E-mail: abneuheimer@gmail.com

    Search for more papers by this author
  • Brian R. MacKenzie

    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), Kavalergården 6, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
    Search for more papers by this author

  • Corresponding Editor: L. Ciannelli.

Abstract

Timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting population production. Explaining and predicting species' dynamics necessitates disentangling the intrinsic (genotypic) and extrinsic (climatic) factors controlling reproductive timing. Here we explore temporal and spatial changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40° to 80° N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among years (within populations) to show how recent changes in spawning time can be explained by local changes in temperature. Second, we employ spawning DD to identify temperature-independent trends in spawning time among populations that are consistent with parallel adaptive evolution and the evolutionary history of the species. Finally, we use our results to estimate spawning time under future climate regimes, and discuss the implications for cod ecology across the species' range.

Ancillary