Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework

Authors

  • Benjamin Blonder,

    Corresponding author
    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 Denmark
    2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
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  • David Nogués-Bravo,

    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 Denmark
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  • Michael K. Borregaard,

    1. School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD United Kingdom
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  • John C. Donoghue II,

    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 Denmark
    2. Center for Conservation Biology, University of California, Riverside, California 92521 USA
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  • Peter M. Jørgensen,

    1. Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 USA
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  • Nathan J. B. Kraft,

    1. Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742 USA
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  • Jean-Philippe Lessard,

    1. Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0G4 Canada
    2. Department of Biology, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H4B-1R6 Canada
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  • Naia Morueta-Holme,

    1. Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000 Denmark
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  • Brody Sandel,

    1. Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000 Denmark
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  • Jens-Christian Svenning,

    1. Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000 Denmark
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  • Cyrille Violle,

    1. Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Montpellier 34293 France
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  • Carsten Rahbek,

    1. Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 2100 Denmark
    2. Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY United Kingdom
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  • Brian J. Enquist

    1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
    2. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501 USA
    3. Aspen Center for Environmental Studies, 100 Puppy Smith Street, Aspen, Colorado 81611 USA
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  • Corresponding Editor: L. S. Adler.

Abstract

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial–interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

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