Christian R. Grose <email@example.com> is Assistant Professor of Political Science and Bruce I. Oppenheimer <firstname.lastname@example.org> is Professor of Political Science, both at Vanderbilt University, VU Station B#351817, Nashville, TN 37235-1817.
The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections
Article first published online: 7 JAN 2011
2007 Comparative Legislative Research Center at the University of Iowa
Legislative Studies Quarterly
Volume 32, Issue 4, pages 531–557, November 2007
How to Cite
GROSE, C. R. and OPPENHEIMER, B. I. (2007), The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 32: 531–557. doi: 10.3162/036298007782398495
- Issue published online: 7 JAN 2011
- Article first published online: 7 JAN 2011
Although partisan swing is often assumed to be uniform across congressional districts, our analysis of the 2006 House elections demonstrates that systematic variation exists. In addition to incumbency status, partisanship, spending, and scandal, variation in the local salience of national issues across districts affects vote shifts in these districts. Notably, partisan swing in Republican districts proved highly sensitive to the number of Iraq war deaths from that district and, to a lesser degree, to the roll-call vote of Republican House members on the war resolution. These findings have implications for theories of anticipatory representation, retrospective voting, and electoral accountability.