I would like to thank the co-editor and referees for extremely valuable comments and suggestions.
The ex ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty
Article first published online: 3 OCT 2012
Copyright © 2012 Leandro Nascimento
Volume 7, Issue 3, pages 535–570, September 2012
How to Cite
Nascimento, L. (2012), The ex ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty. Theoretical Economics, 7: 535–570. doi: 10.3982/TE896
- Issue published online: 3 OCT 2012
- Article first published online: 3 OCT 2012
- Submitted 2010-11-6. Final version accepted 2011-6-10. Available online 2011-8-10.
- Aggregation of preferences;
This paper presents an analysis of the problem of aggregating preference orderings under subjective uncertainty. Individual preferences, or opinions, agree on the ranking of risky prospects, but are quite general because we do not specify the perception of ambiguity or the attitude toward it. A convexity axiom for the ex ante preference characterizes a (collective) decision rule that can be interpreted as a compromise between the utilitarian and the Rawlsian criteria. The former is characterized by the independence axiom as in Harsanyi (1955). Existing results are special cases of our representation theorems, which also allow us to interpret Segal's (1987) two-stage approach to ambiguity as the ex ante aggregation of (Bayesian) future selves' opinions.