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Annabel Bolck and Ivo Alberink Variation in likelihood ratios for forensic evidence evaluation of XTC tablets comparison Journal of Chemometrics 25

Version of Record online: 29 DEC 2010 | DOI: 10.1002/cem.1361

In forensic comparison casework Q3 Q3, where it is investigated whether items are from the same source, the likelihood ratio (LR) is a measure for evaluating the strength of evidence of the observed (dis)similarity between these items. The paper concentrates on evaluation of various LR models for comparison of XTC tablets from different seizures. Starting from a two-level random effect model, where means are considered random, the distribution of these means may be assumed normal or approximated by kernel density estimations (KDEs), and measurement errors may or may not be allowed to differ per batch. It is investigated what effect the corresponding model and estimation choices have on the distribution of LRs for same- and different-batch comparisons.

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