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Hans Lilja, Angel M. Cronin, Anders Dahlin, Jonas Manjer, Peter M. Nilsson, James A. Eastham, Anders S. Bjartell, Peter T. Scardino, David Ulmert and Andrew J. Vickers Prediction of significant prostate cancer diagnosed 20 to 30 years later with a single measure of prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50 Cancer 117

Version of Record online: 19 OCT 2010 | DOI: 10.1002/cncr.25568

In a case-control study nested within a large population-based cohort not subject to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, PSA before age 50 strongly predicted long-term risk of prostate cancer diagnosis, providing independent replication of a prior finding. Seventy-nine percent of prostate cancer diagnoses and 81% of advanced cancer diagnoses occurred in men whose PSA at ages 44-50 was above the median, suggesting that PSA at this age could be used to stratify men for frequency of subsequent prostate cancer screening.

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