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April E. Reside, Jeremy VanDerWal and Alex S. Kutt Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios Ecology and Evolution 2

Article first published online: 28 FEB 2012 | DOI: 10.1002/ece3.197

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We used species distribution modelling to predict geographic ranges for birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario in 2080. We assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. Projected future range sizes were sensitive to dispersal scenario: ranges decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed.

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