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Sarah A. Woodin, Thomas J. Hilbish, Brian Helmuth, Sierra J. Jones and David S. Wethey Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail Ecology and Evolution 3

Version of Record online: 22 AUG 2013 | DOI: 10.1002/ece3.680

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The application of models for anticipating the biogeographic consequences of climate change mandates that we have confidence in model predictions under what are often novel environmental conditions. However, models generated using data from one location often fail when extended to new locales or new epochs, and such instances have been used as prima facie evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on metrics from physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments.

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