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Shinji Toda and Ross S. Stein The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo Geophysical Research Letters 40

Version of Record online: 6 JUN 2013 | DOI: 10.1002/grl.50524

Key Points

  • Tokyo seismicity rate jumped 10-fold even though the M9 shock struck 200 km away
  • The data can be explained by stress triggering, permitting a 5-yr M>7 forecast
  • Capturing highly time-dependent hazard is critical to megacities near megaquakes

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