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Patrick Gagnon, Claudia Sheedy, Annemieke Farenhorst, DA Ross McQueen, Allan J Cessna and Nathaniel K Newlands A coupled stochastic/deterministic model to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides across Canada Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 10

Version of Record online: 12 MAY 2014 | DOI: 10.1002/ieam.1533

Key Points

  • A stochastic model is developed and coupled to a pesticide fate model in order to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides for over 2000 region across Canada for the years 1981 and 2006.
  • Mapping and statistical analyses of the results help to identify the most-at-risk areas were further attention would be needed.
  • Risk level is generally higher for regions where the proportion of the land treated by pesticides and where the number of days with surface runoff are high.
  • The stochastic model developed is specific for Canadian data, but the framework could be adapted for other large countries.

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