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Sophie Pelland, George Galanis and George Kallos Solar and photovoltaic forecasting through post-processing of the Global Environmental Multiscale numerical weather prediction model Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications 21

Version of Record online: 22 NOV 2011 | DOI: 10.1002/pip.1180

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Solar and photovoltaic (PV) forecasts for horizons between 0 and 48 h ahead were developed through post-processing of the Global Environmental Multiscale numerical weather prediction model and compared with measured irradiance and PV power data. With the use of spatial averaging and a Kalman filter, solar forecast root mean square error was reduced by 15% compared with the Global Environmental Multiscale forecasts without post-processing. PV forecast RMSE ranged from 6.4% to 9.2% of rated power, with about 76% of forecast errors within ±5% of the rated power.

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