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N. P. Gillett, V. K. Arora, G. M. Flato, J. F. Scinocca and K. von Salzen Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations Geophysical Research Letters 39

Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2012 | DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050226

Key Points

  • Estimates of TCR and 21st century warming are sensitive to the analysis period
  • Using 1851-2010 observations gives lower and less uncertain projected warming
  • The influence of GHGs, aerosols and natural forcings on temperature is detected

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