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B. D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner and F. J. Wentz Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 116

Version of Record online: 18 NOV 2011 | DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016263

Key Points

  • Models run with human forcing can produce 10-year periods with little warming
  • S/N ratios for tropospheric temp. are ∼1 for 10-yr trends, ∼4 for 32-yr trends
  • Trends >17 yrs are required for identifying human effects on tropospheric temp

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