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S. Corti, A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and L. Magnusson Reliability of decadal predictions Geophysical Research Letters 39

Version of Record online: 15 NOV 2012 | DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053354

Key Points

  • A reliability analysis has been applied to probabilistic decadal predictions
  • Multi-annual temperature forecasts in the ECMWF model are, in general, reliable
  • Long-term climate trends are a major but not the only source of skill

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