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Rosie Eade, Emily Hamilton, Doug M. Smith, Richard J. Graham and Adam A. Scaife Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 117

Version of Record online: 15 NOV 2012 | DOI: 10.1029/2012JD018015

Key Points

  • Decadal predictions of temperature and precipitation extremes do have skill
  • Beyond the first year, skill arises largely from external forcings
  • Extremes can be more skillful than the mean where trends in extremes are greater

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