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Nicholas H. Ogden, L. Robbin Lindsay and Patrick A. Leighton Predicting the rate of invasion of the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi Journal of Applied Ecology 50

Version of Record online: 4 FEB 2013 | DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12050

We have identified the speed at which the pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi invades following the invasion of the tick Ixodes scapularis, and that the synchrony of larval and nymphal tick activity in spring is a key factor determining the gap between tick and pathogen invasion. This has immediate application in interpreting imminence of Lyme disease risk when surveillance identifies emerging tick populations in Canada. It also has general application in predicting of the speed of invasion of emerging tickborne pathogens elsewhere in the world.

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